Toronto Raptors: Why They Are Destined to Win This Year’s Lottery

Of all the lottery teams from last years draft the Raptors are poised to be the least improved team this season and have the greatest chance of winning this year’s lottery and the first overall pick in this year’s stacked draft.  Here’s why…

1. No rookies on this years roster:  Jonas Valanciunas will not be playing for the Raptors this season, meaning the Raptors are the only team from last years lottery who will not have a single rookie on their roster—they did not have a second round pick last year.

2. Roster will remain relatively the same:  It is proposed that the minimum team salary has increased in this new CBA meaning low budget teams will now be forced to become more active players in free agency.  I am not sure exactly how this will work and where the cut off will be but I’m pretty sure the Raptors will be over it—if not I expect they will be close enough that it won’t take a big signing to get over it.  So, provided the Raptors do not use their amnesty clause right away and assuming they are over the minimum team salary then I do not expect their roster to change nor improve very much from the 22 win team last season, thus giving us a very good chance of landing the first overall pick.

3. Other lottery teams will improve:  On the other hand, unlike the Raptors, many of last year’s lottery teams either got one of the missing pieces they needed and are poised to add even more via free agency or they are either under the minimum or have so much cap room that they will either be forced or are expected to be big players in free agency this year. 

Expect teams like Washington, Los Angeles Clippers, Minnesota Timberwolves and the Sacramento Kings to be either playoff teams or late lottery teams this year.  As for the others, Detroit will benefit from the amnesty clause by waiving Rip Hamilton thus putting them under the minimum team salary and consequently forcing them to go out and sign some players.  Charlotte will likely make some free agent additions as well and should benefit from having Kemba Walker on their roster.  Finally, Cleveland, who won last years lottery, will also add some more wins thanks to their new rookie, Kyrie Irving and will likely add some more players via free agency once they amnesty Baron Davis. 

Additional Thoughts:

Contrary to what many others are saying, I would argue that the Raptors will benefit far more in the long-term (beginning as early as next season) by not making any drastic and expensive changes to their roster this off-season.  No matter whom the Raps acquire this off-season they will end up with a top 5 pick.  That being said, by standing pat they will have a far greater chance of landing the first overall pick in this year’s incredibly deep draft class, and if they play their cards right they may be able to pull off a deal at the deadline and land a second lottery pick.  Remember, if they still have their amnesty clause they can trade for an overpaid player and a lottery pick and then waive the player with the amnesty clause and reap the benefits of the lottery pick (unlike the Cavs were able to do this year when they had two top five picks and drafted Tristan Thompson ahead of some players that would have been of far greater value, namely Jonas Valanciunas who the Raps smartly grabbed with the fifth overall pick).

The Bottom line is the Raptors need to…

1. Save their cap space for next off-season when there will be far greater talent available and far less teams with cap room, since many of the current teams under the salary cap will be spending money this year.

2.  The Raptors will benefit greatly from the first overall pick—and possibly from a second lottery pick if they make a trade.

3. The Raptors would then enter next year’s free agency with two to three lottery players, one being Jonas Valanciunas, the other being the first overall pick this year (Andre Drummond, Harrison Barnes, Anthony Davis?) and the possible third being another lottery pick from this years stacked draft class (maybe someone like Marquis Teague or Bradley Beal to fill the hole at PG?) to go along with their current core of DeMar DeRozan, Ed Davis and Andrea Bargnani—who will all still be under contract, save DeMar whom I will get to in the next point.  This means, by this point, the Raptors will have already used their amnesty clause to free up cap space, and should have enough cap room and a such a great core of young talented players that they can make a run at someone like Deron Williams, Chris Paul or Dwight Howard should they decide not to re-sign with their current teams.

4. The 2012/2013 off-season will be CRUCIAL! This is the summer when DeMar DeRozan will become a restricted free-agent, meaning the Raptors will need to have enough talent on their roster by this point in order to convince him to stick around.  If they are able accomplish everything I just mentioned, they should have no problem convincing DeMar to stay in Toronto!

Final Thoughts:

I understand that for all this to happen the Raptors need to have a terrible season, again.  This is difficult for us Raptors fans to stomach but trust me; it will pay as soon as next season.  Even better, with the shortened season we won’t have to endure the usual 82 games of horrible play, so really this is not nearly as bitter of a pill to swallow and we will see the results as soon as next year!  So Raps fans, all I have to say is, let’s take one for the team this year and come back next year with a vengeance!

For those who disagree and say there is no point in waiting and trying to rebuild because we will always lose our stars i.e: Vince Carter and Chris Bosh before we have the chance to bring in the additional pieces, I would just like to point out that this rebuilding proposal would only take two years, and assuming we do it right we will not lose our star in DeMar DeRozan, and all of the core pieces will remain in tact long enough for this plan to work.

Also to those who disagree, don’t fret, there is always the other option, the win now approach by which we would purse a decent free agent this year i.e: Wilson Chandler, Nene, Tyson Chandler etc… which I do not disagree with, I just think this approach would be far more beneficial in the long term. 

I will be writing another piece very soon describing how the “win now approach” would work out, but in the meantime give this approach a chance and let me know what you think.

Welcome back NBA, let’s go Raptors!

Derrick Williams is the Answer at Small Forward For the Toronto Raptors

With the Toronto Raptors set at shooting guard with DeMar DeRozan and power forward with Ed Davis and Andrea Bargnani, they must now look to fill the holes at point guard, small forward and center.

Even more, while filling these spots on the roster, they must look to acquire players that will improve overall team defense and rebounding while still being able to help the team on offense.

Furthermore, they must also find players with a good understanding of the game that can help this young group of players or a young high ceiling player that can add to the youth movement.

At least one of these positions can be addressed in this year’s draft as there are some two point guards in Kyrie Irving and Kemba Walker, a great selection of small forwards to choose from with Derrick Williams, Harrison Barnes and Terrence Jones in that pool and one good center in Enes Kanter.

To be honest, I would be more than happy to see the Raptors come away with any one of the six players I just mentioned, and chances are, they will.

If you go by current standings, the Raptors will end up with the fourth overall pick, and, if they continue to lose and Washington and/or Minnesota decide they’re going to finish the season strong, the Raptors could end up picking even higher.

Depending on how the lottery goes, the Raptors could possibly move up one or two spots to the second or third overall pick (sounds pretty good doesn’t it?), yet just as easily, they could fall down a spot or two to the fifth or sixth pick.

That being said, regardless of where the Raptors lottery pick lands, if Derrick Williams is still available, he is their best choice and here is why…

Scoring:

Derrick Williams is a versatile scorer with the ability to beat you three different ways.

He can attack the rim and get to the free-throw line on a consistent basis, score low in the post and, finally, create his own shot on the perimeter and knock it down from medium and long range.

As I just touched on, Williams gets to the free-throw line very often, and when there, he shoots a high percentage.  This is something all NBA teams look for and need, especially the Raptors, who are currently ranked 19th overall in free-throw attempts per game and 21st overall in free-throw percentage.

Basketball I.Q:

His complete offensive repertoire is no doubt augmented by his above average basketball I.Q. and his great court vision.  This is most noticeable in his shot selection.

Also, when Williams is not driving to the rim or creating his own shot on the perimeter, he is also very smart without the ball in his hands.  His ability play off the ball goes hand-in-hand with the playmaking abilities of Jose Calderon, who is more than capable of getting him the ball when and where he wants it.

Derrick Williams just plain understands how the game works on the offensive side of the ball; he knows when to do what and exactly how to do it.

The Raptors are a young team, and by drafting Derrick Williams, they can continue the youth movement and get a savvy player with a very high ceiling at the same time.

*Just to clarify, I am not saying that Derrick Williams will just jump into the league and be as cool as a cucumber out on the court. As is the case with all rookies, he will need time to adjust to the NBA. However, because of his above average understanding of the game, I expect him to make an impact almost immediately with a couple breakout games early in the season and settle in to become very consistent as the season progresses.

This, without a doubt, will make him the man to beat in terms of the Rookie of the Year award.

Style of Play: Athletic Slasher (But With an Added Touch):

Derrick Williams plays a lot like DeMar DeRozan.  Both are athletic slashers that have/will move down a position in their NBA careers (DeRozan went from small forward to shooting guard, and Williams will go from power forward to small forward).

For Derrick Williams, the advantages of moving down a position will be most noticeable on offense (as is the case for DeRozan).  His size and strength facilitate the process of getting by his man, attacking the rim and drawing a lot of fouls.

Because he is so good at getting to the rim he gets a lot more looks from the charity stripe and he is given a lot more respect on the perimeter.  The extra real estate on the perimeter makes it that much easier for him to create his own shot and utilize his above average shooting ability.

In addition to making things easier for himself, his style of play with also result in a ton of open looks for his teammates and ultimately an improved Toronto offense.

Rebounding:

This one is pretty simple.  Derrick Williams averaged 8.3 rebounds per game this past season for Arizona, meaning he would be a great choice for any team looking to improve their overall rebounding.

Derrick Williams will certainly be one of the better rebounding small forwards in the league and rebounding is certainly one area where the Raptors need to improve.

In regards to rebounding, drafting Derrick Williams would certainly be a job well done for Bryan Colangelo.

Defense:

Standing 6’9'' with a wingspan around 7’0'', Williams is able to get by as a power forward in college, but as I’ve already mentioned, when he comes to the NBA, he will move down a slot to play small forward.

The general consensus is that Williams is an average defender at the power forward position.  However, to analyze him as a power forward makes him out to be an average to below average defender.  That being said, when you look at this 19 year old's defensive abilities as a small forward, it is hard not to be pleased with what he brings to the table in regards to height, strength and defensive awareness.

He is not overly quick, but this is not that great of a problem, because he knows how to use his size and strength in order to stay in front of his man.  Although he will not be a lock down defender in the NBA, he certainly not be a liability on the defensive end.

Also, to stress the age factor once more, he is only 19. So with some good coaching, I expect that he will be able to make some pretty big strides on defense.

Final Thoughts:

At just 19 years of age, Derrick Williams is already a very intelligent player with good court vision who can score a lot of points in a lot of different ways.  In addition to his offense, he will also be one of the top rebounding small forwards in the league on both the defensive and offensive glass.  His defense is his only real possible weakness, but as he develops, you can expect that it will improve.

Derrick Williams is also a perfect fit for the Raptors as he is a smart, well-rounded player that fills their void at small forward and will be a top candidate for Rookie of the Year honors.

He will immediately improve the team’s rebounding and will also improve the team’s offense, which is currently ranked 17th overall in points per game.

His defense is not amazing, but as he develops, it should improve and allow him to contribute to the team on this side of the ball.

Finally, although he is only 19, he offers an above average understanding of the game. He obviously does not bring the same experience that a veteran small forward would bring should the Raptors acquire one in free agency, but he will no doubt develop in to a strong leader no matter which team he ends up playing with.

Let’s just hope it’s the Raptors.

NBA Trade Deadline: Toronto Raptors Acquire James Johnson From Chicago Bulls, Was It a Good Move?

Jay Triano hinted that any moves the Toronto Raptors make before the deadline will be made in order to help the team in the future. This means we should not expect to see the Raptors involved in any blockbuster deadline moves, and instead we will see deals more along the lines of the one that took place earlier today.


The Toronto Raptors have traded the Miami Heat 2011 first round pick they acquired in the Chris Bosh sign and trade to the Chicago Bulls in exchange for 6'9'', SG/SF James Johnson.


Johnson was selected 16^th overall in the 2009 draft by the Chicago Bulls, however, he was unable to lock up a spot in the starting rotation and ended up on a stint in the D league due to a lack of production. Nevertheless, in his defense, he averaged a dismal 11.3 minutes per game with the Bulls.


By not really shining in Chicago, Johnson was given limited minutes and few occasions to prove his worth. However, with the Raptors this will not be the case. His potential will not be lost on the Raptors, and he will be given ample opportunity to prove himself.


Standing 6'9'' and weighing 245 pounds with quite the wingspan, Johnson can play either the two spot as a backup for DeMar DeRozan or play the three spot, either competing with Sonny Weems/Linas Kleiza for a spot in the starting rotation or as his backup.


Speaking of DeMar, he actually seems to be quite high on this guy.
When asked who the Raptors may have taken had he not been available DeRozan suggested that Johnson would have been the one.


DeRozan also stressed the versatility of his former draft mate, saying that he thinks he will fit in well on this team.


I will trust what DeRozan had to say, and Bryan Colangelo seems to feel the same. Colangelo admitted that Johnson was one of the players the Raptors had their eye on in the 2009 draft, emphasizing the strength, athleticism and versatility of Johnson.


As for how Johnson actually plays the game, I still have to read more and I may even have to wait until I see him play a couple games with the Raps.


Nevertheless, at the moment I am under the impression that he plays much like DeRozan. If this is in fact the case then I think playing alongside DeRozan will be very beneficial for him and his development into a legitimate player in the NBA.


My Reaction to the trade:


My first reaction to this trade was actually disappointment.
I am well aware that this draft will not be very deep when it comes to overall talent. Nevertheless, I think it offers quite a large selection of small forwards and centers, which happens to be the Raptors biggest weaknesses, position-wise.


Therefore, I was really looking forward to having two first round picks this year, and I was definitely hoping the Raptors would select a star small forward with the lottery pick. Then, with the Miami pick, I was hoping they would take a defensive-minded center to either backup or replace Andrea Bargnani, allowing him to move to the power forward position.


However, after allowing myself a little time to research James Johnson I am beginning to think this deal may not be all that bad for the Raptors. The Raptors are getting a young player who deserves a second chance to prove himself. His versatility will help the injury riddled Raptors, and I think this fresh start will do wonders for his game.


That being said, Johnson is certainly not our “small forward of the future,” whom I expect we will find in this year’s draft. As a result, excluding the remainder of this season (provided we do in fact draft a SF with our lottery pick), Johnson will remain a backup SG/SF with the potential to become a sixth man type player once Barbosa is gone.


Conclusion:


Finally, I think there is one important thing we can take from this trade—with the acquisition of James Johnson, Sonny Weems and his expiring contract become even more expendable.


It would be a wise move for the Raptors to try and trade Weems before the deadline because he could get them a good piece in return, and I do not think he is a part of the future of the team.


If Sonny Weems is not traded before the deadline, and if Johnson plays well for the remainder of the season, I think we should just let Sonny Weems go because he would most likely be looking for a long term contract, like the one Amir Johnson signed, and this would not be in the best interest of the team following this trade for James Johnson.


Regardless, it all depends on how Johnson plays for the rest of this season, so now we can only wait and see what happens.