Toronto Raptors: Why They Are Destined to Win This Year’s Lottery

Of all the lottery teams from last years draft the Raptors are poised to be the least improved team this season and have the greatest chance of winning this year’s lottery and the first overall pick in this year’s stacked draft.  Here’s why…

1. No rookies on this years roster:  Jonas Valanciunas will not be playing for the Raptors this season, meaning the Raptors are the only team from last years lottery who will not have a single rookie on their roster—they did not have a second round pick last year.

2. Roster will remain relatively the same:  It is proposed that the minimum team salary has increased in this new CBA meaning low budget teams will now be forced to become more active players in free agency.  I am not sure exactly how this will work and where the cut off will be but I’m pretty sure the Raptors will be over it—if not I expect they will be close enough that it won’t take a big signing to get over it.  So, provided the Raptors do not use their amnesty clause right away and assuming they are over the minimum team salary then I do not expect their roster to change nor improve very much from the 22 win team last season, thus giving us a very good chance of landing the first overall pick.

3. Other lottery teams will improve:  On the other hand, unlike the Raptors, many of last year’s lottery teams either got one of the missing pieces they needed and are poised to add even more via free agency or they are either under the minimum or have so much cap room that they will either be forced or are expected to be big players in free agency this year. 

Expect teams like Washington, Los Angeles Clippers, Minnesota Timberwolves and the Sacramento Kings to be either playoff teams or late lottery teams this year.  As for the others, Detroit will benefit from the amnesty clause by waiving Rip Hamilton thus putting them under the minimum team salary and consequently forcing them to go out and sign some players.  Charlotte will likely make some free agent additions as well and should benefit from having Kemba Walker on their roster.  Finally, Cleveland, who won last years lottery, will also add some more wins thanks to their new rookie, Kyrie Irving and will likely add some more players via free agency once they amnesty Baron Davis. 

Additional Thoughts:

Contrary to what many others are saying, I would argue that the Raptors will benefit far more in the long-term (beginning as early as next season) by not making any drastic and expensive changes to their roster this off-season.  No matter whom the Raps acquire this off-season they will end up with a top 5 pick.  That being said, by standing pat they will have a far greater chance of landing the first overall pick in this year’s incredibly deep draft class, and if they play their cards right they may be able to pull off a deal at the deadline and land a second lottery pick.  Remember, if they still have their amnesty clause they can trade for an overpaid player and a lottery pick and then waive the player with the amnesty clause and reap the benefits of the lottery pick (unlike the Cavs were able to do this year when they had two top five picks and drafted Tristan Thompson ahead of some players that would have been of far greater value, namely Jonas Valanciunas who the Raps smartly grabbed with the fifth overall pick).

The Bottom line is the Raptors need to…

1. Save their cap space for next off-season when there will be far greater talent available and far less teams with cap room, since many of the current teams under the salary cap will be spending money this year.

2.  The Raptors will benefit greatly from the first overall pick—and possibly from a second lottery pick if they make a trade.

3. The Raptors would then enter next year’s free agency with two to three lottery players, one being Jonas Valanciunas, the other being the first overall pick this year (Andre Drummond, Harrison Barnes, Anthony Davis?) and the possible third being another lottery pick from this years stacked draft class (maybe someone like Marquis Teague or Bradley Beal to fill the hole at PG?) to go along with their current core of DeMar DeRozan, Ed Davis and Andrea Bargnani—who will all still be under contract, save DeMar whom I will get to in the next point.  This means, by this point, the Raptors will have already used their amnesty clause to free up cap space, and should have enough cap room and a such a great core of young talented players that they can make a run at someone like Deron Williams, Chris Paul or Dwight Howard should they decide not to re-sign with their current teams.

4. The 2012/2013 off-season will be CRUCIAL! This is the summer when DeMar DeRozan will become a restricted free-agent, meaning the Raptors will need to have enough talent on their roster by this point in order to convince him to stick around.  If they are able accomplish everything I just mentioned, they should have no problem convincing DeMar to stay in Toronto!

Final Thoughts:

I understand that for all this to happen the Raptors need to have a terrible season, again.  This is difficult for us Raptors fans to stomach but trust me; it will pay as soon as next season.  Even better, with the shortened season we won’t have to endure the usual 82 games of horrible play, so really this is not nearly as bitter of a pill to swallow and we will see the results as soon as next year!  So Raps fans, all I have to say is, let’s take one for the team this year and come back next year with a vengeance!

For those who disagree and say there is no point in waiting and trying to rebuild because we will always lose our stars i.e: Vince Carter and Chris Bosh before we have the chance to bring in the additional pieces, I would just like to point out that this rebuilding proposal would only take two years, and assuming we do it right we will not lose our star in DeMar DeRozan, and all of the core pieces will remain in tact long enough for this plan to work.

Also to those who disagree, don’t fret, there is always the other option, the win now approach by which we would purse a decent free agent this year i.e: Wilson Chandler, Nene, Tyson Chandler etc… which I do not disagree with, I just think this approach would be far more beneficial in the long term. 

I will be writing another piece very soon describing how the “win now approach” would work out, but in the meantime give this approach a chance and let me know what you think.

Welcome back NBA, let’s go Raptors!

Derrick Williams is the Answer at Small Forward For the Toronto Raptors

With the Toronto Raptors set at shooting guard with DeMar DeRozan and power forward with Ed Davis and Andrea Bargnani, they must now look to fill the holes at point guard, small forward and center.

Even more, while filling these spots on the roster, they must look to acquire players that will improve overall team defense and rebounding while still being able to help the team on offense.

Furthermore, they must also find players with a good understanding of the game that can help this young group of players or a young high ceiling player that can add to the youth movement.

At least one of these positions can be addressed in this year’s draft as there are some two point guards in Kyrie Irving and Kemba Walker, a great selection of small forwards to choose from with Derrick Williams, Harrison Barnes and Terrence Jones in that pool and one good center in Enes Kanter.

To be honest, I would be more than happy to see the Raptors come away with any one of the six players I just mentioned, and chances are, they will.

If you go by current standings, the Raptors will end up with the fourth overall pick, and, if they continue to lose and Washington and/or Minnesota decide they’re going to finish the season strong, the Raptors could end up picking even higher.

Depending on how the lottery goes, the Raptors could possibly move up one or two spots to the second or third overall pick (sounds pretty good doesn’t it?), yet just as easily, they could fall down a spot or two to the fifth or sixth pick.

That being said, regardless of where the Raptors lottery pick lands, if Derrick Williams is still available, he is their best choice and here is why…

Scoring:

Derrick Williams is a versatile scorer with the ability to beat you three different ways.

He can attack the rim and get to the free-throw line on a consistent basis, score low in the post and, finally, create his own shot on the perimeter and knock it down from medium and long range.

As I just touched on, Williams gets to the free-throw line very often, and when there, he shoots a high percentage.  This is something all NBA teams look for and need, especially the Raptors, who are currently ranked 19th overall in free-throw attempts per game and 21st overall in free-throw percentage.

Basketball I.Q:

His complete offensive repertoire is no doubt augmented by his above average basketball I.Q. and his great court vision.  This is most noticeable in his shot selection.

Also, when Williams is not driving to the rim or creating his own shot on the perimeter, he is also very smart without the ball in his hands.  His ability play off the ball goes hand-in-hand with the playmaking abilities of Jose Calderon, who is more than capable of getting him the ball when and where he wants it.

Derrick Williams just plain understands how the game works on the offensive side of the ball; he knows when to do what and exactly how to do it.

The Raptors are a young team, and by drafting Derrick Williams, they can continue the youth movement and get a savvy player with a very high ceiling at the same time.

*Just to clarify, I am not saying that Derrick Williams will just jump into the league and be as cool as a cucumber out on the court. As is the case with all rookies, he will need time to adjust to the NBA. However, because of his above average understanding of the game, I expect him to make an impact almost immediately with a couple breakout games early in the season and settle in to become very consistent as the season progresses.

This, without a doubt, will make him the man to beat in terms of the Rookie of the Year award.

Style of Play: Athletic Slasher (But With an Added Touch):

Derrick Williams plays a lot like DeMar DeRozan.  Both are athletic slashers that have/will move down a position in their NBA careers (DeRozan went from small forward to shooting guard, and Williams will go from power forward to small forward).

For Derrick Williams, the advantages of moving down a position will be most noticeable on offense (as is the case for DeRozan).  His size and strength facilitate the process of getting by his man, attacking the rim and drawing a lot of fouls.

Because he is so good at getting to the rim he gets a lot more looks from the charity stripe and he is given a lot more respect on the perimeter.  The extra real estate on the perimeter makes it that much easier for him to create his own shot and utilize his above average shooting ability.

In addition to making things easier for himself, his style of play with also result in a ton of open looks for his teammates and ultimately an improved Toronto offense.

Rebounding:

This one is pretty simple.  Derrick Williams averaged 8.3 rebounds per game this past season for Arizona, meaning he would be a great choice for any team looking to improve their overall rebounding.

Derrick Williams will certainly be one of the better rebounding small forwards in the league and rebounding is certainly one area where the Raptors need to improve.

In regards to rebounding, drafting Derrick Williams would certainly be a job well done for Bryan Colangelo.

Defense:

Standing 6’9'' with a wingspan around 7’0'', Williams is able to get by as a power forward in college, but as I’ve already mentioned, when he comes to the NBA, he will move down a slot to play small forward.

The general consensus is that Williams is an average defender at the power forward position.  However, to analyze him as a power forward makes him out to be an average to below average defender.  That being said, when you look at this 19 year old's defensive abilities as a small forward, it is hard not to be pleased with what he brings to the table in regards to height, strength and defensive awareness.

He is not overly quick, but this is not that great of a problem, because he knows how to use his size and strength in order to stay in front of his man.  Although he will not be a lock down defender in the NBA, he certainly not be a liability on the defensive end.

Also, to stress the age factor once more, he is only 19. So with some good coaching, I expect that he will be able to make some pretty big strides on defense.

Final Thoughts:

At just 19 years of age, Derrick Williams is already a very intelligent player with good court vision who can score a lot of points in a lot of different ways.  In addition to his offense, he will also be one of the top rebounding small forwards in the league on both the defensive and offensive glass.  His defense is his only real possible weakness, but as he develops, you can expect that it will improve.

Derrick Williams is also a perfect fit for the Raptors as he is a smart, well-rounded player that fills their void at small forward and will be a top candidate for Rookie of the Year honors.

He will immediately improve the team’s rebounding and will also improve the team’s offense, which is currently ranked 17th overall in points per game.

His defense is not amazing, but as he develops, it should improve and allow him to contribute to the team on this side of the ball.

Finally, although he is only 19, he offers an above average understanding of the game. He obviously does not bring the same experience that a veteran small forward would bring should the Raptors acquire one in free agency, but he will no doubt develop in to a strong leader no matter which team he ends up playing with.

Let’s just hope it’s the Raptors.

Greg Oden or Andrea Bargnani: who is a better fit for the Toronto Raptors?

What is the biggest similarity between Andrea Bargnani and Greg Oden?

Both of them were first overall picks that their teams regret. 

In both cases there were star caliber players chosen right after them.  Andrea Bargnani went one pick ahead of Lamarcus Aldridge in the 2006 NBA draft and Kevin Durant went one pick after Greg Oden in the 2007 NBA draft

In his time in the league Bargnani’s accomplishments include: making the NBA all-rookie first team in 2007 and leading the Raptors in points per game and well…. That is about all he has done in his first five years in the league.  As for his career averages they read as follows:

15.1 Points per game

5.3 Rebounds per game  

0.9 Blocks per game

365 career games, playing an average of 30.3 minutes per game.

In Oden’s first four years since being drafted, he has been plagued by injuries and has only played the equivalent of one full season in his first four years in the league.  As for accomplishments, he has had microfracture surgery on both of his knees, and that is about it. 

If we look at his career stats up until now, which essentially total up to give us the equivalent of one full season of play (a rookie season at that) they read a little something like this…

9.4 Points per game

7.3 Rebounds per game

1.4 Blocks per game

82 career games, playing an average of 22.1 minutes per game.

Now I know stats can be misleading, especially considering the fact that Bargnani has played in almost 300 more games than Oden and also averaged eight more minutes per game. 

That being said, the important thing I want everyone to take from this is the fact that Oden can actually rebound and protect the post, this is evident after only seeing him play in 82 NBA games.  On the other hand, in Bargnani’s first 365 NBA games, he has effectively proven to us that he cannot rebound or protect the paint at the NBA level and has cleverly attempted to mask his shortcomings by pretending like the only reason he does not rebound or play defense is because he does not have the desire too.

In Oden’s case, Injuries have prevented him from putting his true talents on display and should Portland not take him up on his qualifying offer this summer he will become an unrestricted free agent.  Albeit, if he were to become a free agent he would certainly be a great pickup for any team since they could buy low (due to his history of injuries) on this high ceiling player (provided he can stay healthy).  

Although he has his risks, any team that acquires Oden really has nothing to lose provided they sign him to a reasonable contract and throw in a team option as protection should he continue to be plagued by injuries.

Ideally, I would want to sign him to a one or two year contract with a team option just in case, and the contract would likely be $3.5 million or less with the possibility of a raise should he perform well and be re-signed by the team.

Nevertheless, there is one major reason why I cannot see Portland letting him go this off-season and here is why…

Similar to the Bargnani situation in Toronto, both teams can use their amazing powers of hindsight and realize that they made a mistake with both of their first overall picks, and honestly, who can blame them, things happen.

However, what is not okay is the fact that both teams are now trying to hold on to these guys as long as they can in the hopes that they will one day be able to play like a true first overall pick and essentially allow them to say “I told you so”. 

Unfortunately, I do not see this happening in either team’s case since Oden will never outperform Kevin Durant and I doubt Bargnani will ever become as well rounded and efficient a player as Lamarcus Aldridge.

That being said, I think it is about time that both teams forget about the possibility of having the “I told you so” moment and just move on.

For the Blazers this means letting Oden go to free agency this off-season and for the Raptors, it means trading Andrea Bargnani.

Toronto needs to jump on Greg Oden…

Interestingly enough, when I mentioned earlier that Greg Oden would be a great low risk pickup for any team the precise example I had in mind was the Toronto Raptors.

It is about time the Raptors trade their one dimensional bust of a first overall pick and take a risk and sign another first round bust in Greg Oden, who, should he work out would be a much better fit for the Raptors than Andrea ever would. In other words, NBA teams will fear a frontcourt duo of Ed Davis and Greg Oden far more than a duo of Ed Davis and Andrea Bargnani (with his matador defense).

The Raptors certainly have the cap room and if they sign him to a two-year contract with a team option, his contract would come off the books in the summer of 2013, which I predict will be the real turning point for the Raptors as they attempt to re-sign DeMar DeRozan and as Jose Calderon’s contract comes off the books.

As I stated in my last article, http://bleacherreport.com/articles/645838-toronto-raptors-constructing-a-contender-completion-date-summer-2013, 2013 will be make or break for the Toronto Raptors.

By summer 2013, the Raptors will have…

·         A fully developed DeMar DeRozan (who will likely be an all-star by then),

·         A fully developed Ed Davis (who will be averaging a little over a double-double per game).

·         Three lottery picks from 2011, 2012 and 2013 (and honestly they have been drafting pretty well since the whole Bargnani conundrum so expect these to be solid players).

·         A great bench with Amir Johnson and James Johnson (should they re-sign him),

·         A ton of cap room to sign a player/players in free agency.

·         In addition, the will most likely have Sonny Weems and Jerryd Bayless. 

·         Moreover, should they follow my advice; they will have the option of re-signing Greg Oden after having two seasons to evaluate his performance.

If things work out with Oden then that’s great and if for some reason (likely injuries) things didn’t work out with Oden, then no sweat, just let his contract expire and it’ll be just like it never happened.

Make a move Bryan Colangelo/Bryan Colangelo’s replacement (I hope it is the latter) and take a risk by buying low on this high ceiling player (just like the Blue Jays did with Alex Gonzales)

Toronto Raptors Andrea Bargnani trade rumors: Let Ed Davis Drive and Leave Andrea Bargnani in the Rear View

According to Mitch Lawrence of the New York Daily News, the Toronto Raptors are now reportedly open to trading Andrea Bargnani in the off-season (here is the link: http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/basketball/knicks/2011/03/26/2011-03-26_if_donnie_walsh_is_let_go_by_knicks_dont_be_shocked_to_see_him_back_in_indiana_i.html ).

It seems the Toronto Raptors head office has finally accepted the fact that DeMar DeRozan and Ed Davis are the future of this team.  Consequently, this makes Bargnani expendable considering the Raptors already have their backup PF in Amir Johnson who has a cheaper (albeit not by that much) price tag and a far more well rounded game (as well as the desire to play).

I have been suggesting the Raptors trade Bargnani for some time now and I am glad to see that the option has finally come to the fore front.  It seems as if Andrea has mentally shut him self down for the season, and one could argue that his energy and motivation are at an all time low (à la Chris Bosh at the end of last season perhaps?).

In addition to the Bargnani rumors, Lawrence also adds that according to several league sources Bryan Colangelo will be back next season to run the team. 

Brace yourself, it get’s worse…

According to Lawrence, with the possibility of Donnie Walsh leaving New York there is a good chance that Mike D’Antoni will be out of a job next year.  If in fact Mike D’Antoni is looking for a job next year Lawrence states that there is a good chance he may look to rejoin Bryan Colangelo (who he was paired with in Phoenix) and take over Jay Triano’s job as the head coach of the Toronto Raptors.

Here is the problem with that…

D’Antoni has had success with his offense first run’n gun style in the past, most notably with the Phoenix Suns with whom he earned NBA Coach of the year honours not all that long ago.  That being said, Toronto is not the place for Mike D’Antoni and his offense first style of coaching.

If the Toronto Raptors want to get back in to the playoffs and have a chance of becoming NBA champs it is absolutely crucial that they improve their DEFENSE!!

Trading Andrea Bargnani would certainly go a long way in improving their defense, especially in the post, but bringing in D'Antoni will completely negate these defensive improvements since he is a notorious offense first coach.

D'Antoni is a run 'n gun offense first coach and this is exactly what the Raptor must avoid if they plan on winning any time soon.

Being a run'n gun team this year was fine because everyone knew we would be a lottery team.  Remember everyone talking about how the Raptors would be a horrible team but their up-tempo style of play would very exciting to watch?—exactly my point!

Run’n gun offense is perfectly fine during a down year in order to keep the fans energized and coming to games…

But now we are ready to move forward and build around DeMar DeRozan, Ed Davis and this year’s draft pick, as well as the complimentary piece/pieces we will acquire by trading Andrea Bargnani (maybe trade him to the Nuggets for PG Raymond Felton?).

So let’s wave goodbye to Bryan Colangelo and Andrea Bargnani as we drive off in to the sunset with our potential packed young core!